I was casually going about my day, when a post came across my dashboard. It was by a Tumblr user names “notanotherberniesandersblog”, and it had some out of date and quite odd logic to it. So I took the liberty of responding to it, and in the process, crushing all their hope.
The original post:
URGENT; PLEASE SPREAD THIS WIDELY! According to the Associated Press, Hillary Clinton has already accumulated enough delegates to win and become the Democratic Party’s nominee for president. Please ignore this announcement, it is not true at all. They’re including unpledged superdelegates in the delegate count to misinform potential voters. The primaries are far from over. Neither of the candidates will reach the 2,383 pledged delegate threshold needed to win the Democratic Party nomination. There will be a contested convention.
The Real Math
(As of June, 4th, 2016)
Total Number of Delegates Available = 4763
Hillary Clinton = 1769
Bernie Sanders = 1501
Total Number of Delegates Required to Clinch the Nomination = 2383
Total Number of Delegates Remaining = 1493
Total Number of Delegates Who Vote on June 4th Through June 14th, 2016 = 930
No Candidate Can Clinch the Nomination Before June 14, 2016
Hillary Clinton Would Need 614 out of 930
Bernie Sanders Would Need 882 out of 930
Total Number of Delegates Who Vote on July 25th, 2016 = 719
(Democratic National Convention)
The Nomination Will Be Decided on July 25th, 2016.
Please spread the word, this must go viral! California voters deserve better!
Tl;dr: Ignore it! Keep phone banking and donating and volunteering and canvassing!
(Credit to Jacob B. for writing this)
Now, I found this a little strange, due to the numbers still being off, and how they treat Superdelegates. So, here is my response.
Let’s look at reality, instead of this “real math” (as of June 9th):
Total Number of Delegates: 4,770
Number of Pledged Delegates (by candidate):
Number of Unpledged Delegates (superdelegates by candidate):
Total Delegate Count (by candidate):
Which one is closer to the nomination? Hint hint, not Sanders. With superdelegates, Clinton already has the nomination. Without them, she’s VASTLY closer than Bernie is. If you choose Bernie at convention, don’t even try to talk about how “the people have spoken” and crap like that.
Second of all, let’s just look at the delegates who’ve yet to either vote or decide. This would include Washington DC and some superdelegates still. The total number left to pick up? Just over 150. Please spare me the “well the superdelegates don’t really matter!” crap. You know that’s a lie. There’s a reason they’re there.
Bernie is finished. He is done. There will not be any saving him at convention. You will be wasting your time. You will be wasting your money. You will be wasting so many valuable resources because you will be deluding yourselves that he can somehow magically win. It’s time to admit defeat.